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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

30
Cats Return To Rupp; Take On Tennessee

The Days of Wine and Roses has turned into the Days of Whine and Posers for this UK basketball team. The Cats have now lost 4 of their last 6 games after an impressive 5-0 start to the SEC. For the first time in UK basketball history, a 5-0 start will not produce even a share of the SEC regular season championship, and given the list of opponents for the final 5 game stretch run, UK's ability to even compete in this year's NCAA tournament is now at serious risk. The Big Blue Nation is grumbling about so many issues, too many to itemize here, and for the first time in his tenure, it is clear that Bill Gillispie has spent his start up capital and squandered his initial good will. The Big Blue Nation is now demanding tangible results over these last 5 games sufficient to keep the consecutive NCAA tournament run alive with the hopes that next season will provide more results that can restock Gillispie's capital and good will.

On Tuesday night, the Cats fell victim to a not so good Tennessee team in Nashville. The Cats played without Patrick Patterson, and Jodie Meeks was unable to carry the rest of this team on his shoulders again. It is difficult enough for Meeks and Patterson to carry this team, which is exactly what both have done thoughout the season, but when one of these two players is unavailable, the grim task has fallen only upon the other because none of the other team members have been able or willing to step up and provide any assistance.

So, the Cats now stand in a 4 way tie for first place in the SEC East at 7-4, along with Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina. LSU stands at the head of the pack in the West, and the SEC on the whole, at 10-1. Over the last 5 games, the Cats will play Tennessee and LSU at Rupp, and play South Carolina and Florida on the road. With respect to the final SEC East standings, the Cats have their future in their own hands. However, given LSU's current record, and the likely outcome of their final 5 games, the Cats can't even hope to win or tie for the SEC regular season championship again in 2009.

The Cats have 43 SEC regular season titles to their credit, but their last occurred in the 2005 season. Now, 4 straight years without securing an SEC regular season title. A quick review of the record book reveals that only once before have the Cats experienced anything close to this current 4 year SEC championship drought. In 1988- 1994, the Cats are not now recognized as SEC Champions, 7 years straight. However, in that 7 year span, the Cats won in 1988 [vacated] and had the best record in the conference in 1991 [not eligible for champion recognition due to probation], so the real non-title years were 1989-1990 [2 years] and 1992-1994 [3 years]. Never before or since has Kentucky been without an SEC regular season championship or shared one, for 4 consecutive years.

The Cats currently stand at 18-8, 7-4 in the SEC. With 5 SEC regular season games remaining, it is imperative that the Cats win out from here if they want to have any hopes of being a part of the annual March Madness. It is no longer a simple question of keeping pace with Florida, Tennessee, or South Carolina against the rest of the SEC field because from here to the end, the Cats play their primary challengers head to head, 2 at Rupp and 2 on the road.

Tennessee enters this game with a record of 16-9, 7-4 in the SEC. TENNESSEE has averaged 87.0 possessions per game while allowing opponents 84.3 possessions. TENNESSEE has averaged 79.1 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.909 ppp. On the defensive end, TENNESSEE has allowed 72.4 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.858 ppp. TENNESSEE averages about 13.6 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 15.4 turnovers per game. On the glass, TENNESSEE secures about 36.4% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 31.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 83.6 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.6 possessions. The Cats average about 76.7 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.917 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.775 ppp. The Cats average 17.8 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.0 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.6% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Patterson has missed the last two games, and his presence on the court was sorely missed by the Cats in their loss to Vanderbilt on Tuesday night. Reports from the UK camp suggest that Patterson has returned to practice the last 2 days, is probably 95%, and that the time off has allowed his injured finger to heal as well as his ankle. Today, Gillispie returns to his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Stevenson, and Patterson.

The game opens with Tennessee winning the tip and immediately playing a very slow, deliberate pace, and the Cats hit 2 of their first 5 shots while forcing Tennessee into 2 turnovers, and no baskets in the opening segment, as the Cats eased out to an early 5 point lead, 5-0, at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats continued there early run, scoring the next 6 points, lastly on a steal and run out by Meeks, prompting a Tennessee timeout with 13:24 to play in the half, and the Cats leading 11-0. The Cats eventually extended the start to 13-0 before Tennessee scored its first basket, a put back on an offensive rebound to cut the lead to 13-2 at the under 12 TV timeout and 11:12 to play in the half.

In the third segment, both teams settled into the game, and began to trade baskets to the under 8 TV timeout and the Cats continuing to hold an 11 point lead, 21-10. Tennessee will have the ball when play resumes. The Cats sustained the 11 point lead to near the end of a prolonged fourth segment, 28-17, but a three pointer by Tennessee cut the lead to 8 points, 28-20, at the under 4 TV timeout and 2:09 to play in the first half, and Tennessee will have the possession when play resumes. Tennessee trimmed the lead to only 4 points, 28-24, but Porter made a three pointer following an offensive rebound by Stewart to put the Cats up by 7 points, 31-24, at the half. After leading by 13 points, 13-0 and 15-2, the Cats allowed Tennessee to fight their way back into this game over the last 12 minutes of the half, as Tennessee out scored the Cats 22-16.

The pace of the first half was 70 possessions and the Cats and 80 for TENNESSEE. Kentucky had 30 first chance and 5 second chances while TENNESSEE had 30 first chance and 10 second chance possessions. TENNESSEE ended the half with a 17-16 advantage for total rebounds, and TENNESSEE out battled Kentucky on the offensive glass, 10-5. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 8 points, and Tennessee used its 10 second chance possessions for 18 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 41.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed TENNESSEE to grab a very strong 47.6% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 8 turnovers in the first half, and TENNESSEE committed 6 turnovers.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.200 ppp on its 30 first half possessions and 1.800 ppp for its 10 second chance possession. UK had 0.767 ppp on its 30 first half possessions and 1.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were an uncharacteristic 3-4 [75.0%], and TENNESSEE made 4-5 free throws [80.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very well over the half, making 13-25 [52.0%] for the half overall. The Cats made only 2-7 [28.6%] from outside the arc. For TENNESSEE their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a poor 2-13 [15.4%], and TENNESSEE shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 7-19 [36.8%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 59 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 28 points and Tennessee needs 35 points. Kentucky scored its 59 th point on a Patterson basket with 11:00 to play in the game and Kentucky leading 59-38. The teams played the final 11:00, and the held serve at Rupp against Tennessee and move their record to 19-8, 8-4 in the SEC.

Second Half Summary:

The Volunteers opened the second half with a 3 pointer to cut the lead back to 4 points, 31-27, but the Cats then went out on a 12-4 run of its own to reassert a 12 point lead before Tennessee cut it back to 10 points at the under 16 TV timeout, 43-33, as Patterson picked up his third personal foul immediately before the break. Tennessee will have the possession when play resumes. When play resumed, Tennessee missed twice, and Kentucky converted twice at the other end of the floor to run the lead out to the biggest of the day, 15 points, 48-33, prompting a Tennessee timeout with 14:13 to play in the game. In the second segment, the Cats continued their dominance, extending the lead to 19 points, 57-38, at the under 12 TV timeout and 11:12 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats established their biggest lead of the day, 23 points, 61-38, but Tennessee then scored the next 9 points to cut the lead back to a more manageable 14 points, 61-47 at the under 8 TV timeout. Tennessee will have the possessions when play resumes.

In the fourth segment, the Cats and Vols traded baskets after the Cats reestablished their 19 point lead, and the segment came to a close on a Tennessee basket and Kentucky shooting foul, with the score 71-53 at the under 4 TV timeout. Tennessee will have one free throw when play resumes. The teams played the final 4 minutes as the Cats secured the win, 77-58 to move to 19-8, 8-4 in the SEC.

UK scored its 77 points in a total of 70 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.100 ppp. TENNESSEE scored its 58 points on a total of 85 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.682 ppp.

Kentucky lost the total rebounding battle, 28-35 and the Volunteers won on the offensive glass 23-8. Kentucky converted their 8-second chance into 10 points while TENNESSEE converted its 23-second chances into 32 points.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.452 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.304 ppp for its 23-second chance possessions. UK had 1.001 ppp on its 60 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 8-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an above season average 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to get a weak 31.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.7 possessions and forced TENNESSEE into one turnover in every 6.5 possessions.

After back to back games with uncharacteristically poor free throw shooting, the Cats returned to their usual fine form today hitting 14-16 [87.5%]. Tennessee made 14-21 from the line [66.7%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 28-47 overall [59.6%] including a strong 7-17 from long range [41.2%]. For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was fair, 16-39 [41.0%] and TENNESSEE shot poorly from long range, 4-24 [16.7%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 7 point Kentucky win [77-70], and the outcome was different, 77-58. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.917 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.100 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.814 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.682 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B+” and the defensive “grade” is “B+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/27_Grades_UT.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Wednesday night, February 25, 2009, the Cats will travel to Columbia, South Carolina to seek pay back for a home court loss earlier this month.. The Cats will carry a 8-4 conference record into this rematch with the Gamecocks.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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