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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

29
Cats Stay On the SEC Road, At Vanderbilt

On Saturday afternoon, the Cats won their 4 th SEC road game in five trips this season, and on Tuesday, the Cats will make their 6 th SEC road trip, this time to Vanderbilt. Last season, Vanderbilt destroyed Coach Gillispie's first UK team when the Cats visited Nashville, and tonight provides Gillispie and the Cats an opportunity for some measure of pay back.

The Cats currently stand at 18-7, 7-3 in the SEC, and riding a two game winning streak after dropping 3 in a row. With 6 SEC regular season games remaining, it is imperative that the Cats leave Nashville with a victory Tuesday, to offset one of the two home losses sustained earlier this month to South Carolina and Mississippi State, and to keep pace with Tennessee and South Carolina for SEC East honors.

Vanderbilt enters tonight's game with a record of 15-9, 4-6 in the SEC. VANDERBILT has averaged 78.9 possessions per game while allowing opponents 78.7 possessions. VANDERBILT has averaged 69.3 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.878 ppp. On the defensive end, VANDERBILT has allowed 64.0 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.813 ppp. VANDERBILT averages about 14.9 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 12.8 turnovers per game. On the glass, VANDERBILT secures about 33.4% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 29.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 83.8 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.7 possessions. The Cats average about 77.2 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.921 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.0 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.768 ppp. The Cats average 17.9 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.1% of their misses.

The Cats have played a slightly stronger schedule over the first 25 games for the Cats and the first 24 games for VANDERBILT, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 81 possessions for the Cats and 82 possessions for VANDERBILT, with a Kentucky win by 2 points, 70-68. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 0.866 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.824 ppp for a game NGE of 0.04 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 70 points.

First Half Summary:

On Saturday, Patterson did not play, and Harrellson got the start in his place. Pre-game word from the Kentucky camp suggests that Patterson may be available for some playing time tonight, but no one has said that he will indeed play. Gillispie made no other changes in the starting line up, much to the chagrin of some UK fans who have clamored for weeks, indeed months, for Gillispie to sit Porter and Harris for Liggins, Galloway, Harrellson, or Miller. However, tonight the starting five are the same as Saturday, Harrellson, Stevenson, Harris, Meeks, and Porter.

The Cats open with a Meeks three pointer, and a fast pace in the opening segment. In the segment, the Cats went up by 4 points, 8-4 before Vandy closed to within 2 points at the under 16 TV timeout, and the Cats leading 8-6. After a tie at 8, the Cats gained their last lead of the game so far at 10-8. At that point, Vandy scored 8 straight point, to take the largest lead of the game, 6 points 16-10. However, a Meeks 3 pointer and a Stevenson lay up from a Galloway assist cut the lead back to 1 point at the end of a prolonged second segment, 16-15 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:26 to play in the half. The early story of this game is the offensive rebounding by Vandy and fouls by Kentucky. Vandy has 6 points from free throws, and 8 second chance points. In the first 10 minutes, Vandy has owned the boards, 5-1 on the offensive glass, and 12-7 in total rebounds. In addition, the Cats have committed 8 fouls to Vandy's 3, drawing the ire of Coach Gillispie sufficient to earn a technical foul on the Kentucky bench.

In the abbreviated third segment, the Cats continued to reassert themselves with a three pointer and a jumper in the lane by Miller, followed by a put back by Galloway to take the Cats back on top by 4 points at the under 8 TV timeout, 22-18. On the last play of the third segment, Oglivy was called for a technical foul, and when play resumes, Meeks made the two free throws, and then the Cats get the ball. However, the rest of the segment was not good for the Cats as the fouls continue to mount, and Vandy continues to score from the free throw line, now 10 of their 24 total points. After Vandy caught up again at 24-24, the Cats scored the final basket of the segment to lead by 2 points, 26-24, at the under 4 TV timeout. Stevenson will have 2 free throws when play resumes.

Stevenson missed both free throws as the Cats' free throw shooting woes of the last 2 games continues to plague this team again tonight. The Cats and Commodores fought to a 30-30 tie at the half.

The pace of the first half was 74 possessions and the Cats and 76 for VANDERBILT. Kentucky had 32 first chance and 5 second chances while VANDERBILT had 32 first chance and 6 second chance possessions. VANDERBILT ended the half with a 18-15 advantage for total rebounds, and VANDERBILT out battled Kentucky on the offensive glass, 6-5. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 2 points, and Vanderbilt used its 6 second chance possessions for 10 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a weak 29.4% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed VANDERBILT to grab a very strong 37.5% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 7 turnovers in the first half, and VANDERBILT committed 8 turnovers.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.625 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 1.667 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.875 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 0.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were an uncharacteristic 5-8 [62.5%], and VANDERBILT made 15-18 free throws [83.3%]. The Cats shot the ball very well early, but their shooting dropped significantly over the last 8 minutes of the half, making 11-26 [42.3%] for the half overall. The Cats made 3-10 [30.0%] from outside the arc. For VANDERBILT their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a poor 1-5 [20.0%], and VANDERBILT shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 6-16 [37.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 61 st point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky and Vanderbilt each need 31 points. Vanderbilt scored its 61 st point on a three point play by Oglivy with 6:00 to play in the game and Vanderbilt leading 62-50. The teams played the final 6:00, and the Cats fell to defeat for the fourth time in SEC play in 11 starts, and for the 8 th time this season.

Second Half Summary:

For the second half, Miller replaces Harrellson in the starting five. The Cats open by missing their first 3 shots, and committing a turnover, while Vandy hit their first 3 shots, including 2 three pointers to score the first 9 points of the half. By the time the opening segment came to a merciful end, the Cats trailed by 9 points, 41-32, with Meeks to shoot a pair when play resumes after the under 16 TV timeout. During the second segment, the Cats began to chip away at the Vandy 9 point lead, and cut the lead to 4 points, 45-41 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, Vanderbilt blew the game open by outscoring the Cats 15-3 to extend the lead to 16 points, 60-44 at the under 8 TV timeout.

The Cats staged a brief comeback attempt and closed the gap to 9 points, but they could get no closer as Vandy stopped the run, and began trading points, and maintained a 10 point lead, 65-55, at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:29 to play in the game. The teams played out the final 3 ½ minutes as Vandy beat the Cats in Nashville for the fourth consecutive year, 77-64.

UK scored its 64 points in a total of 78 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.821 ppp. VANDERBILT scored its 77 points on a total of 79 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.975 ppp.

Kentucky lost the total rebounding battle, 26-37 and the Commodores won on the offensive glass 13-11. Kentucky converted their 11-second chance into 8 points while VANDERBILT converted its 13-second chances into 18 points.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.834 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.385 ppp for its 13-second chance possessions. UK had 0.836 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.727 ppp on its 11-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below season average 31.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to get a weak 30.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.2 possessions and forced VANDERBILT into one turnover in every 4.6 possessions.

After another slow start from the line, the Cats ended the game at about their season average with 18-23 from the free throw line. However, the Cats put Vanderbilt on the line 40 times for the game, and Vandy made 32 of those shots [80.0]. Field goal shooting for UK was 20-52 overall [38.5%] including a weak 6-19 from long range [31.6%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very good, 15-32 [46.9%] and VANDERBILT shot well from long range, 5-11 [45.5%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 2 point Kentucky win [70-68], and the outcome was different, 64-77. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.866 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.821 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.824 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.975 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “D+” and the defensive “grade” is “D-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/26_Grades_@VANDY.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, February 21, 2009, the Cats will play Tennessee at Rupp. The Cats will carry a 7-4 conference record into this rematch with the Volunteers.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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