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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

28
Cats Return To The SEC Road, At Arkansas

The Cats opened their season 0-2, and muddled their way through a 15 game non-conference schedule with 4 losses, 11-4. Arkansas, on the other hand, breezed through their non-conference schedule 12-1 including wins over Big 12 powers Texas and Oklahoma. However, SEC play often presents challenges for the teams that compete that non-conference play simply does not prepare.

The Cats opened their SEC play with 5 consecutive wins, including three road wins at Tennessee, at Georgia, and at Alabama. However, the Cats' good fortune ended abruptly on January 27 when the Cats tasted defeat at the hands of an SEC team for the first time, at Mississippi. This loss propelled the Cats into a slide that produced three consecutive SEC losses, including back to back losses at Rupp before the Cats could secure SEC win number 6 on Tuesday night against Florida at Rupp.

As difficult as Kentucky's 3 game losing streak was for the Big Blue Nation to endure, Kentucky has not been even close to the SEC team playing the worst basketball over the last month. When Arkansas took care of Oklahoma to go 10-1, some eyebrows raised slightly, and when a week later the Hoggs took care of Texas, most observers believed Pelphrey's magic was going to produce a strong SEC run. Not so. The Hoggs have only tasted victory one more time since Texas, beating Alabama by 9 points in Fayetteville, following 4 straight SEC losses. Since Alabama, Arkansas has sustained 4 more straight losses.

However, when the Cats and Hogs do battle on a basketball court, records can be meaningless, and despite their current 1-8 SEC record, the Hogs remain very difficult to beat on their home court.

There is always an abundance of drama surrounding this game simply because it is the Cats and Hogs, but now that the Hog coach is Kentucky's favorite son, John Pelphrey, the drama has simply grown to grander proportions. At to the usual drama the fact that each team has lost one of its primary offensive weapons this week. On Tuesday night, during the Florida game, Patrick Patterson injured his right ankle, and on Thursday, Arkansas Coach John Pelphrey suspended freshman point guard Fortson indefinitely. Patterson's status is indefinite for this game.

Arkansas is in last place in the SEC West with, 13-9, 1-8 SEC record. ARKANSAS has averaged 85.5 possessions per game while allowing opponents 84.1 possessions. ARKANSAS has averaged 75.7 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.885 ppp. On the defensive end, ARKANSAS has allowed 71.8 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.854 ppp. ARKANSAS averages about 13.9 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 14.7 turnovers per game. On the glass, ARKANSAS secures about 33.9% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 29.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.0 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.0 possessions. The Cats average about 77.1 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.919 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.766 ppp. The Cats average 18.0 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.0 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.1% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Despite the stinging three game losing streak, Coach Gillispie remained with his regular starting line up for Florida. However, today Coach Gillispie is facing a probable, and unwanted line up change due to Patterson's ankle injury with 10 minutes to play against the Gators. Official reports from the UK camp this morning say that Patterson's status will be a game time decision, but Patterson has not practiced since his injury, and his availability for future games will be much more important for the Cats than it might be today against a struggling Arkansas team. If Patterson can't go, many people expect Gillispie to insert Harrellson into Patterson's position, with Stevenson, Harris, Meeks, and Porter. Many others believe that Galloway has earned a starting job for today's game on the strength of his game against Florida on Tuesday night.

Gillispie's response to this fan chatter is start Harrellson for Patterson and make no other changes in the starting line up.

The Cats Open up with 7 points by Meeks before Porter drained back to back three pointers to sprint out to an early 6 point lead, 10-6, but the Hogs cut that lead to only 3 points, 13-10 near the end of the extended opening segment, at the under 16 TV timeout with 13:53 to play in the first half. In this first 6 minutes, the Cats have 2 turnovers, one offensive rebound, and the Hogs have 1 turnover and 2 offensive rebounding. Neither team has converted their second chances into points.

Out of the time out, Meeks continued his red hot shooting, hitting back to back three pointers of his own, and on the second, he was also fouled and he converted for the rare 4 point play to extend the Cats out to their largest lead, 20-10. Rotnei Clark ended the Meeks run with a three pointer of his own to cut the Cat lead to 7 points at the under 12 TV timeout and the Cats leading 20-13. The early pace is 80 possessions for each team. The Cats have 5 early turnovers, and have been out fought 2-1 on the offensive glass through 8 minutes of play. Meeks has 14 of the Cats' 20 points, and Porter has the other 6 points. The Cats need to get scoring from other players.

Galloway makes his first appearance with 9:22 to play in the half while Meeks gets a rest. The teams played the third segment on more or less even terms, as the Cats outscored the Hogs by 1 point,8-7, to take an 8 point lead at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:45 to play in the first half. The Cats have committed 7 turnovers to the Hogs 3 through 13 minutes. In the fourth segment, the Cats asserted their dominance and outscored the Hogs 9-2 to take a 15 point lead, 37-22 at the under 4 TV timeout. When play resumes, Harris will attempt to convert the old fashioned three point play.

Out of the time out, the Harris missed his free throw attempt, and several other shots including back to back three point attempts, and the Hogs outscored the Cats 7-3 over the final segment of the first half to trim the Cat lead to 11 points, 40-29.

The pace of the first half was 78 possessions and the Cats and 78 for ARKANSAS. Kentucky had 34 first chance and 5 second chances while ARKANSAS had 33 first chance and 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 21-15 advantage for total rebounds, and ARKANSAS out battled Kentucky on the offensive glass, 6-5. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 0 points, and Arkansas used its 6 second chance possessions for 4 second chance points. The Cats grabbed an average 35.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they limited ARKANSAS to a weak 27.3% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 10 turnovers in the first half, and ARKANSAS committed 5 turnovers.

ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.758 ppp on its 33 first half possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 1.177 ppp on its 34 first half possessions and 0.000 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were an uncharacteristic 4-8 [50.0%], and ARKANSAS made 5-6 free throws [83.3%]. The Cats shot the ball very well early, and throughout most of the half making 13-20 in the first 16 minutes. However, 1-7 shooting over the last 4 minutes lowered the Cats' shooting to 13-27 [51.9%] for the half overall. The Cats made 8-13 [61.5%] from outside the arc. For ARKANSAS their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a poor 2-14 [14.3%], and ARKANSAS shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 9-18 [50.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while ARKANSAS needs 46 points. Kentucky scored its 75 th point on a Meeks run out with 1:40 to play in the game and Kentucky leading 75-60. The teams played the final 1:40, and the Cats secured their 7 th SEC win in 10 tries including their 4 th SEC road win, 79-63.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half with what worked best in the first half, the Jodie Meeks show. Meeks hit his first 2 three point attempts to open the lead to 16 points, 47-31 prompting a Hog timeout with 17:16 to play in the game. After the timeout, the Hogs settled down, stopped Meeks, and cut the lead back to 13 points, 49-36, after a prolonged opening segment to the under 16 TV timeout and 13:57 to play in the game.

Out of the timeout, Arkansas cut the lead back to the halftime margin, 11 points, but two steals and baskets off turnovers propelled the Cats back up by 15 points, 53-38, prompting another unscheduled Arkansas timeout with 12:45 to play in the game. The timeout did not stop Arkansas' problems as their third straight turnover resulted in another Meeks run out basket and a free throw to take the lead to a game high 18 points. When the Hogs could not avoid a fourth turnover, Arkansas called another timeout with 12:23 to play in the game. The Cats extended their lead to 21 points with 10:47 to play. However, thereafter In the third segment, the Hogs trimmed the lead from 21 to 13 points, 62-49 at the under 8 TV timeout.

In the fourth segment of the second half, the Hogs cut the lead to 11 points, but the Cats managed to ease back to a 13 point lead at the under 4 TV timeout, 68-55 with Meeks set to shoot two free throws when play resumes. The Cats finish the job 79-63.

UK scored its 79 points in a total of 77 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.026 ppp. ARKANSAS scored its 63 points on a total of 78 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.808 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 35-30 and the Hogs won on the offensive glass 11-10. Kentucky converted their 10-second chance into 5 points while ARKANSAS converted its 11-second chances into 10 points.

ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.731 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.909 ppp for its 11-second chance possessions. UK had 1.104 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a season average 34.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS was able to get a weak 30.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.8 possessions and forced ARKANSAS into one turnover in every 6.0 possessions.

UK was significantly below its season average from the free throw line for the second consecutive game, making 12-20 [60.0%]. ARKANSAS made 13-22 [59.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 28-54 overall [51.9%] including a strong 11-22 from long range [50.0%]. For ARKANSAS, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very good, 19-33 [57.6%] and ARKANSAS shot poorly from long range, 4-22 [18.2%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 6 point Kentucky win [75-70], and the outcome was different, 79-63. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.893 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.026 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.824 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.808 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B+” and the defensive “grade” is “C” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/25_Grades_@ARK.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, Tuesday night, February 17 2009, the Cats will play Vanderbilt in Naashville. The Cats will carry a 7-3 conference record into the game.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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