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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

27
Cats End Three Game Home Stand Desparate To Get One Win

After opening up SEC play with 5 consecutive wins, including 3 on the road, the Cats have now dropped three in a row, including back to back home. No Kentucky team has lost three consecutive SEC home games, and this team is desperate to get at least one win from its current three game home stand.

It has been one week since the Cats last took the floor at Rupp. It has been one week since the Cats sustained their third consecutive loss, and their second consecutive loss at Rupp. It has been one week since the Big Blue Nation woke up to realize that there are major problems within this team, and perhaps with its coaching staff. It has been one LONG week, and tonight the Cats will again take the Rupp floor desperate to end the losing and get back to the quality of play at both ends of the court that propelled this team to a 16-4, 5-0 start.

There is little doubt that the Cats have stumbled and fallen over the last 2 weeks, and the real question that the Cats must answer tonight is whether all the wheels have also come off their bus. Tonight's game is all about the future of this UK team, and in real terms the future direction of this program. Tonight's game has much less to do with who will provide the opposition.

Will the Cats find anyone on the team capable of making baskets from the perimeter while completely unguarded? Will the Cats resolve their illicit affair with turnovers that has ended well over 20% of all possessions this season? Will the Cats find defensive answers to stop opponents' guards from penetrating and scoring off the dribble. Until, and unless the Cats resolve these three issues, it will not matter what names appear on the other teams' jerseys tonight, or any night. Coaches have figured it out. If they double and triple team Patterson, and put fresh defenders inside Meeks' shorts for the duration of the game, they will beat this Kentucky team because no one else has shown an ability to score.

However, the opponent tonight is Florida, and the Gators currently stand at the top of the SEC East with a 19-4, 6-2 SEC record, and they are one of the hottest teams in the SEC at the present time, having won 3 of their last 4 conference games. The Gators have beaten two of the three teams that have taken the Cats down, Mississippi and South Carolina. However, Florida was not able to match the Cats' huge win over Tennessee in Knoxville. The Gators also lost to South Carolina in Columbia, a SEC road venue that still lurks on the Cats' February schedule.

FLORIDA has averaged 81.6 possessions per game while allowing opponents 81.3 possessions. FLORIDA has averaged 79.4 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.973 ppp. On the defensive end, FLORIDA has allowed 66.3 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.815 ppp. FLORIDA averages about 12.8 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, FLORIDA secures about 33.6% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 31.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.0 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.2 possessions. The Cats average about 77.5 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.922 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.764 ppp. The Cats average 18.0 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.1 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.6% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

The three consecutive losses have knocked this group of Cats to the mat. In addition, the Cats have now sustained their second consecutive home court loss, and fourth loss this season at Rupp. These circumstances simply reinforce the urgency of the question that has reverberated throughout the Big Blue Nation for weeks. Why does Coach Gillispie continue to use the same starting lineup, especially a lineup that includes Porter and Harris, and why does Coach Gillispie insist upon playing Porter and Harris at the same time when neither of them pose any threat to score, both are so prone to turnovers, and both appear to be defensive liabilities against the SEC opponents. Coach Gillispie does not make a lineup change and starts Porter, Meeks, Harris, Stevenson, and Patterson.

The Cats only hit 2 of their first 6 shots and committed two early turnovers during the first segment. Florida only made 2 of 7 shots, but both of theirs were three pointers, and the Gators eased out to an early 2 point lead, 6-4, at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace is about 80 possessions, and each team grabbed one offensive rebound and no second chance points in the first 4 minutes. In the second segment, the Cats caught up at 6-6, but Porter missed two free throws that would have given the Cats the lead, and then 3 Cat turnovers allowed Florida to run 6 straight points for a 12-6 lead at the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, Florida stole the Cats' inbounds pass, and Calathes made the basket and was fouled to extend the lead to 8 points, 14 – 6, but the Cats came roaring back with a 9-2 run of their own, to cut the lead to a single point, 16-15 with about 8 minutes to play in the first half. After the timeout, the Cats scored again to retake the lead, 17-16. The Cats continue their run to 24-18, an 18-4 run, before Florida began to trade baskets again with the Cats to the under 4 TV timeout and the Cats holding a 4 point lead, 26-22. The Cats set their largest lead of the game at 5 points, 30-25, but Florida scored the last 5 points of the half, for a 30-30 tie.

The pace of the first half was 78 possessions and the Cats and 78 for FLORIDA. Kentucky had 37 first chance and 2 second chances while FLORIDA had 37 first chance and 2 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 15-11 advantage for total rebounds, and Kentucky and Florida battled on even terms on the offensive glass, 2-2. Each team converted their second chances into 0 points. The Cats grabbed a weak 18.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they limited FLORIDA to a weaker 13.3% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 14 turnovers in the first half, and FLORIDA committed 11 turnovers.

FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.811 ppp on its 37 first half possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 2 second chance possession. UK had 0.811 ppp on its 37 first half possessions and 0.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were an uncharacteristic 4-9 [44.4%], and FLORIDA made 4-5 free throws [80.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very poorly early in the game, but finished the half by hitting 9 of 11 shots to finish the half 11-20 [55.0 overall. The Cats made 4-8 [50.0%] from outside the arc. For FLORIDA their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a good 4-9 [44.4%], and FLORIDA shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 7-17 [41.2%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 61 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 31 points, while FLORIDA needs 31 points. Florida scored its 61 st points on a free throw by Walker with 3:19 to play in the game and Florida leading 62-56. The teams played the final 3:19, and the Cats overcame great odds down the stretch to snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat, as Jodie Meeks scored 10 of the Cats' last 12 points, and the Cats won 68-65.

Second Half Summary:

The Gators open the second half by outscoring the Cats 6-2 to take a 36-32 lead. At the end of the first segment, the lead was trimmed to 3 points, 38-35 at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats have only hit 5 of 11 free throws in this game, and Meeks has missed twice from the line. The Gators extended their lead to a game high 6 points, 43-37, but the Cats closed the gap back to 1 point, 47-46, at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:55 to play in the game.

In the third segment the Cats moved on out to a 4 point lead on 3 occasions, the last at 54-50, but the Gators trimmed it back to 2 points just prior to the under 8 TV timeout with 7:19 to play in the game. The Cats will have the ball when play resumes. During that segment, Patterson left the game with an apparent right ankle injury and the Cats leading 50-47.

Out of the timeout, the Gators continued their scoring run to 10 points to regain the lead and run it out to 6 points again, 60-54, prompting a UK timeout with 4:32 to play in the game. Patterson is still on the bench. The Cats cut the lead to 4 points, 60-56 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:19 to play in the game. Florida will have two free throws when play resumes.

In the final 3 minutes, after the Gators converted both of the free throws to resume play, the Cats outscored Florida 12-3 and pulled a victory from the jaws of defeat, 68-65, as Jodie Meeks scored 10 of those final 12 points. The Cats ended their 3 game losing streak and avoided becoming the first UK team to lose 3 consecutive games at Rupp Arena.

UK scored its 68 points in a total of 83 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0..819 ppp. FLORIDA scored its 65 points on a total of 77 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.844 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 39-26, and the Cats won on the offensive glass 11-6. Kentucky converted their 11-second chance into 10 points while FLORIDA converted its 6-second chances into 4 points.

FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.859 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 6-second chance possessions. UK had 0.806 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 0.909 ppp on its 11-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a season average 35.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to get an anemic 17.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.4 possessions and forced FLORIDA into one turnover in every 6.4 possessions.

UK was significantly below its season average from the free throw line in this game, making 11-19 [56.3%]. FLORIDA made 17-26 [65.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-55 overall [47.3%] including a strong 7-17 from long range [41.2%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 18-40 [45.0%] and FLORIDA shot poorly from long range, 4-14 [28.6%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 6 point Kentucky win [75-69], and the outcome was slightly different, 68-65. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.904 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.819 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.831 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.844 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “D+” and the defensive “grade” is “C” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/24_Grades_FLA.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, February 14, 2009, the Cats will play Arkansas in Fayetteville. The Cats will carry a 6-3 conference record into the game.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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