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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

26
Cats Try To Stop a Two Game Losing Streak Against Mississippi State

After opening up SEC play with 5 consecutive wins, including 3 on the road, the Cats have now dropped back to back games for the first time since their first two games of the 2008-09 season. On Saturday, the Cats fell victim to South Carolina's last second basket that finished a Gamecock rally from 10 points down in the last 10 minutes of the game. In that game, the Cats shot the ball very well from the field [52%] and the line [80+%]. USC on the other hand shot the ball poorly from the field and the line.

So, how in the Sam Hill did the Cats lose a game when they clearly shot the ball so well, and their opponent shot the ball so poorly? The recipe for defeat in this game has a familiar ring. The Cats turned the ball over too many times, did not force many USC turnovers, and allowed USC to control the offensive boards. As a result, USC got over 20 more chances to score than the Cats, and that was the decisive factor of the game.

Coach Gilllispie's second UK team has been the most prolific turnover machine in UK basketball history. Last year was the worst ever, that is until this year. The Cats have managed to overcome the high turnover rates for most of this season on the strength of their superior shooting. However, in the last two games, both losses, the turnover situation has been compounded by the inability to end opponent possessions after the opponents miss field goal attempts.

Allowing any opponent more than 20 bonus possessions, more than 20 extra chances to score points, is a sure formula for defeat.

So, the Cats have lost 2 in a row. So, the Cats have lost another game at Rupp to an inferior opponent. So, the Cats have started the most important 3 game homestand of the season with a loss.

Next up; Mississippi State tonight at Rupp in the second game of this three game sequence.

MISSISSIPPI STATE enters the game with an overall record of 13-7 against D1 opposition, and 4-2 in the SEC. MISSISSIPPI STATE has averaged 81.7 possessions per game while allowing opponents 86.5 possessions. MISSISSIPPI STATE has averaged 73.8 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.903 ppp. On the defensive end, MISSISSIPPI STATE has allowed 66.0 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.764 ppp. MISSISSIPPI STATE averages about 14.9 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 14.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, MISSISSIPPI STATE secures about 30.5% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 35.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.2 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.8 possessions. The Cats average about 78.5 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.932 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.759 ppp. The Cats average 18.1 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.0 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.8% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

The Cats are staggering from their second consecutive loss, and their third loss at Rupp this season. Today, Coach Gillispie returns to the same starting lineup that he has used for most of the season. The starting five are Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats open with 3 turnovers and no baskets in the opening segment, and the Cats fall behind MSU 8-0 at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:40 to play in the half. In the second segment, two baskets by Miller broke the scoring drought for the Cats, and they cut an 11-2 lead to 5 points, 11-6 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats cut the lead to one point, 11-10, but a MSU three pointer near the end of the segment lifted MSU back to a 4 point lead, 16-12 at the under 8 TV timeout. The segment ended with Varnado's second foul, and Patterson will be shooting free throws when play resumes.

In the fourth segment of the first half, MSU reasserted its dominance and stretched the lead back to 7 points, 23-16, at the under 4 TV timeout. Miller will have free throws when play resumes. The Cats could get no closer, and MSU hit 4 of 4 three pointers in the final 4 minutes to take their biggest lead of the game, 13 points, 37-24, at the half.

The pace of the first half was 78 possessions and the Cats and 76 for MISSISSIPPI STATE. Kentucky had 33 first chance and 6 second chances while MISSISSIPPI STATE had 34 first chance and 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 18-17 advantage for total rebounds, and Kentucky won the offensive glass, 6-4. Each team converted their second chances into 6 points. The Cats grabbed a weak 31.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they limited MISSISSIPPI STATE to a low 25.0% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 9 turnovers in the first half, and MISSISSIPPI STATE committed 8 turnovers.

MISSISSIPPI STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.974 ppp on its 34 first half possessions and 1.500 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.545 ppp on its 33 first half possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 5-6 [83.3%], and MISSISSIPPI STATE made 2-5 free throws [40.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very poorly throughout the first half making 9-27[33.3%] overall. The Cats made 1-7 [14.3%] from outside the arc. For MISSISSIPPI STATE their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a stunning 9-16 [56.3%], and MISSISSIPPI STATE shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 4-12 [33.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 68 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 44 points, while MISSISSIPPI STATE needs 31 points. MISSISSIPPI STATE had two free throws with about 20 seconds to play that could have given them the 68 th point, but missed the front end, but STATE won the game 66-57.

Second Half Summary:

After playing on even terms with MSU in the opening segment of the second half, the Cats cut the 13 point halftime lead to 9 points, 43-34, prompting a MSU timeout with 13:18 to play in the game. Following the timeout, the Cats continued to chip away at the MSU lead, cutting it to 5 points, 43-38, at the under 12 TV timeout.

In a protracted third segment, the Cats cut the lead to 3 points, 43-40, but MSU made a 7-2 run to go back up by 8 points, 50-42. A Liggins three pointer cut the lead back to 5 points at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:58 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, MSU moved back to a 10 point lead, 55-45, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 5:30 to play in the game. However, the timeout was to no avail, as MSU continues to pour it on a very shaky Kentucky team, extending their lead to 16 points, 61-45, with 3:01 to play in the game. The final score, 66-57, as MSU hands the Cats their second straight home loss, and third straight loss overall, to drop the Cats to 16-7, 5-3 in the SEC.

UK scored its 57 points in a total of 80 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0..713 ppp. MISSISSIPPI STATE scored its 66 points on a total of 73 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.904 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 38-33, and the Cats won on the offensive glass 15-8. Kentucky converted their 15-second chance into 13 points while MISSISSIPPI STATE converted its 8-second chances into 8 points.

MISSISSIPPI STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.892 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 8-second chance possessions. UK had 0.677 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.867 ppp on its 15-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI STATE was able to get 25.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.3 possessions and forced MISSISSIPPI STATE into one turnover in every 4.6 possessions.

UK was at their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 11-14 [78.6%]. MISSISSIPPI STATE made 6-10 [60.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-59 overall [35.6%] including a pitiful 4-14 from long range [28.6%]. For MISSISSIPPI STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak 9-25 [36.0%] and MISSISSIPPI STATE shot well from long range, 14-27 [51.9%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 10 point Kentucky win [76-66], and the outcome was significantly different, 57-66. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.894 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.713 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.786 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.904 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “E” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/23_Grades_MSU.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Tuesday night, February 10, 2009, the Cats will play Florida at Rupp. The Cats will carry a 5-3 conference record into the game.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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