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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

25
Cats Limp Home For Critical Three Game Homestand
South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Florida

The Cats opened SEC play in 2009 with road games in 4 of their first 6 games, and many believed that the Cats could use this early scheduling to their benefit and take a perfect 6-0 SEC record into one of the most important 3 game sequences of the 2008-09 basketball season. However, Mississippi spoiled those plans on Tuesday night by out hustling, out toughing, and out playing the Cats before a sparse Oxford, Mississippi crowd. At the end of the game, the Rebels handed the Cats their first SEC loss of the season, and their 5th loss overall, leaving the Cats to limp back home to Rupp for the most critical three game sequence of this season.

Over the next 10 days, the Cats will take on South Carolina, then Mississippi State, and then Florida. USC is probably the hottest team in the SEC now, with three straight wins over Florida, Mississippi, and Vanderbilt. However, USC's SEC record now stands at 4-2, and unlike the Cats who started with 4 of 6 on the road, USC started with 4 of their first 6 games at home, and USC won all four in Columbia, and lost road games at Tennessee and LSU. Florida is now tied with the Cats at the top of the SEC with a 5-1 SEC record, and Mississippi State is nipping at their heels with a 4-1 SEC record. Therefore, the next three games, all at Rupp, will play a major role in determining who will win the SEC regular season championship this year, as well as who will be the #1 and #2 seeds from the SEC East for the SEC Tournament.

The Cats need to win all three.

First up: South Carolina.

SOUTH CAROLINA enters the game with an overall record of 15-4 against D1 opposition. SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 88.2 possessions per game while allowing opponents 87.2 possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 79.9 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.906 ppp. On the defensive end, SOUTH CAROLINA has allowed 68.3 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.783 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA averages about 13.6 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 19.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, SOUTH CAROLINA secures about 35.4% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 34.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.2 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.4 possessions. The Cats average about 78.5 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.932 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 64.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.755 ppp. The Cats average 18.0 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.3 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.2% of their misses.

The Cats have played a very slightly stronger schedule over the first 21 games than SOUTH CAROLINA, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 86 possessions for the Cats and 87 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA, with a Kentucky win by 11 points, 78-67. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 0.919 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.770 ppp for a game NGE of 0.15 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 74 points.

First Half Summary:

In their last outing, the Cats tasted defeat in the SEC for the first time. In that loss, Harris yielded to Miller for playing time, and Porter yielded to Liggins. Both replacements played over 31 minutes, and both of these starters played 9 minutes or less. Today, Coach Gillispie returns to the same starting lineup that he has used for most of the season. The starting five are Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats and Cocks start this game with a frenetic pace and poor shooting. In the opening segment, the Cats clawed their way to a slim 1 point lead, 6-5 at the under 16 TV timeout. In this segment, USC grabbed three offensive rebounds and converted them to 3 second chance points. The Cats have hit 2-8 while USC is 2-7 in the early going. The difference in the game is that Patterson made both of his free throws, while USC hit only 1-2 from the line. In the second segment, USC pulls even, 6-6, by making 1-2 free throws out of the timeout, but the Cats score the only other 6 points in the segment, to take a 6 point lead, 12-6, at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, USC came back to life after a 4 minute siesta, and outscored the Cats 10-7, cutting the lead to just 3 points, 19-16 at the under 8 TV timeout. USC continues its run, extending its lead to a maximum of 9 points, 29-20 following a technical foul on the Kentucky bench. However, the Cats responded with back to back baskets, cutting the lead back to 5 points,, prompting a USC timeout with 4:44 to go in the half. The Gamecocks maintained that 5 point lead, 31-26 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats have committed 9 turnovers while only forcing 5 by USC, and USC has owned the boards, with a 8-1 advantage in offensive rebounds and 10-0 in second chance points.

In the final segment, the Cats closed the gap to 1 point twice, but it took a bad moving pick call on USC with about 4 seconds to play, and a Liggins 3 pointer from about 25 feet at the buzzer for the Cats to regain the lead, by 1 point, 37-36 at the half.

The pace of the first half was 94 possessions and the Cats and 96possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. Kentucky had 40 first chance and 7 second chances while SOUTH CAROLINA had 40 first chance and 8 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 25-19 advantage for total rebounds, but SOUTH CAROLINA won the offensive glass, 8-7, and SOUTH CAROLINA converted their second chances into 10 points as compared to only 2 by the Cats. The Cats grabbed a strong 38.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed SOUTH CAROLINA to grab a low 30.8% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 11 turnovers in the first half, and SOUTH CAROLINA committed 6 turnovers.

SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0..650 ppp on its 40 first half possessions and 1.250 ppp for its 8 second chance possession. UK had 0.875 ppp on its 40 first half possessions and 0.286 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 1417 [82.4%], and SOUTH CAROLINA made 6-13 free throws [46.2%]. The Cats shot the ball way below their average throughout the first half making 11-27[40.7%] overall. It was clear that Coach Gillispie does NOT want a lot of 3 point shooting today, and the Cats made 1-2 [50.0%] with the only made three pointer coming on the last second shot by Liggins to close the first half of play. For SOUTH CAROLINA their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a poor 2-10 [20.0%], and SOUTH CAROLINA shot the ball a little better from inside the arc, hitting 12-26 [46.2%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 74 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 37 points, while SOUTH CAROLINA needs 38 points. Kentucky scored their 74 th point with 1:09 to play in the game and the Cats leading 75--72 . The teams finished the final 1:09, and Kentucky .continued its home court defense in the SEC with a 80-73 win over SOUTH CAROLINA.

Second Half Summary:

After only scoring 2 points in the first half on a pair of free throws, Meeks began the second half on a mission. He hit a three pointer, made 3 the old fashioned way, and finished a fast break with a layup basket, 8 quick points for Meeks as the Cats outscored USC 12-8 in the first 3 minutes, prompting a timeout by USC with 16:53 to play and the Cats leading by 5 points, 49-44. Out of the timeout, the Cats blocked a couple of USC shots, and Meeks hit yet another 3 pointer to give the Cats an 8 point lead, 52-44, at the under 16 TV timeout.

However, after easing the lead out to 10 points, 54-44, and by 8 points at 58-50, USC ran off 9 straight points, using multiple offensive rebounds per trip to retake the lead, 59-58, with 10:17 to play in the game in an extended second segment, to the under 12 TV timeout. In the abbreviated third segment, USC extend its lead to 5 points, 63-58 before a miller jumper in the lane gave the Cats their first score in a long time, and trim the USC lead back to 3 points, 63-60. Following another USC miss, Patterson was fouled on a shot, and will have 2 free throws when play resumes from the under 8 TV timeout.

In the 4 th segment, the Cats rallied to regain the lead, 68-66, but a USC three pointer gave them another 1 point lead at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:51 to play in the game, and the Cats will have the possession when play resumes. A USC jumper in the lane with 3 seconds to play gave USC a 1 point lead, 78-77. The Cats had trouble getting an inbounds pass away, and had to call a second time out. The Cats must go the length of the court and score in 3.2 seconds or less to win this game today, failed as Meeks' shot from mid court caromed off the front of the rim.

UK scored its 77 points in a total of 83 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.928 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 78 points on a total of 93 possessions for a defensive efficiency of .0.839 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 40-35, and the Gamecocks won on the offensive glass 18-9. Kentucky converted their 9-second chance into 7 points while SOUTH CAROLINA converted its 18-second chances into 21 points.

SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.760 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp for its 18-second chance possessions. UK had 0.946 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and only .778 ppp on its 9-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below average 34.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to get an above average 36.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.0 possessions and forced SOUTH CAROLINA into one turnover in every 9.2 possessions.

UK was above their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 24-29 [82.8%]; however, the two misses by Stevenson inside the last minute are perhaps the most costly missed free throws by a Kentucky player in quite awhile. SOUTH CAROLINA made 7-15 [46.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-48 overall [52.1%] including an above average 3-8 from long range [37.5%]. For SOUTH CAROLINA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 25-56 [44.6%] and SOUTH CAROLINA shot well from long range, 7-20 [35.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 11 point Kentucky win [78-67], and the outcome was significantly different, 77-78. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.928 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.770 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.839 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/22_Grades_USC.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Tuesday night, February 3, 2009, the Cats will play Mississippi State at Rupp. The Cats will carry a 5-2 conference record into the game.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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