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BASKETBALL

ANALYSIS OF THE NEXT
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL GAME

PREDICTION OF GAME OUTCOME
BASED ON NGE METHODS

These NGE analyses are dynamic and change day to day
prior to the game as the available database
expands with additional play. 

To a Comparison of Current Performance To NCAA D1 Averages
and Comparison of Efficiency, Pace, and Scoring to Prior Years

1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
3. Home
4. Away
5. Neutral Court
6. Non-Conference
7. SEC
8. Pomeroy Top 50
9. Pomeroy Over 50
10. Post Season Play
11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2011
12. SEC Tournament Gateway
13. NCAA Tournament

IMPORTANT NOTE: In 2009-10, the Kentucky basketball team's rebounding became so dominant in the first 10 games that the differences created by a varied definition of a possession became substantial, and based on a 10 game comparison of predicted and actual results using the original definition and the Pomeroy definition, I have decided to start using the Pomeroy definition for a possession beginning with the 2009-10 season, and thereafter. However, I have no means to convert the data for all prior seasons to this new definition at this time. Therefore, any attempts to compare pace and efficiency derived values for 2009-10 and later with any prior season's posted values will fail. The differences are:

1. Pace values will be lower, by the number of offensive rebounds.

2. Efficiencies will be higher due to the lower number of total possessions

3. Turnover rates will be higher due to the lower number of possessions.

CHECK OUT THESE OTHER ANALYTICAL WRITINGS

What Is Basketball?

What is a Possession?

Change in Position on Definition of Possessions

What Is Net Game Efficiency?

Why Do "Upsets" Occur?

Do Objective Performance Measures Like NGE
Account For Intangible?

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