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ANALYSIS OF THE GAME OF BASKETBALL
WHAT IS THEORETICAL BASIS FOR GAME ANE CALCULATION
Many years ago, I observed that a rough approximation of a game margin by taking each team's average margin for the season, and computing the difference. There is an underlying assumption in this formulation that the two teams played equivalent schedule strengths to establish their respective average margins, and the location of their meeting would be a neutral court. In addition, the original formulation assumed the two teams played at the same Tempo. Deviations from these assumptions require adjustments to the computation of predicted game margin, which is beyond the scope of this article. The Tempo adjustment is addressed below, but the Venue and Strength of Schedule adjustments are left for another article.
The basis for this starting point is the premise that if Team 1 has outscored its opponents by 20 points per game on average, but Team 2 has only outscored its opponents by 0 points against that same set of opponents, then Team 1 should beat Team 2 on a neutral court by 20 points.
The formula that follows represents that calculation.
(NET1)-(NET2) = Game Margin
NET1 = Team 1's Average Scoring Margin
NET2 = Team 2's Average Scoring Margin
TEMPO1 = Average Tempo For Team 1
TEMPO2 = Average Tempo for Team 2
ANE1 = ADJUSTED NET EFFICIENCY for Team 1, NET1/TEMPO1
ANE2 = ADJUSTED NET EFFICIENCY for Team 2, NET2/TEMPO2
TEMPO = Theoretical Tempo for Game Between Teams 1 and 2,
Game Margin = Theoretical Margin For Game Between Teams 1 and 2
ANE = Theoretical Adjusted Net Efficiency for Game Between Teams 1 and 2
This starting equation derives into:
NET1/TEMPO1 – NET2/TEMPO2 = Game Margin/TEMPO
ANE1 – ANE2 = Game Margin/(.5*(TEMPO1+TEMPO2))
(ANE1 – ANE2)*(TEMPO1+TEMPO2)/2 = Game Margin
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