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BASKETBALL

THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2016-16 BASKETBALL SEASON

Continue to 2015-16 News Index Page

How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore

The 2015-16 UK Surge
In Graphical Terms

When the surge occurred in 2012, I saw it in my data, but I struggled with a way to show it graphically in a form that most people could view and realize, yes this is really happening.  This morning, UK has risen to #7 in the Pomeroy ranking, and I decided to look at Pomeroy ranking prior to each game this season, and the graph below results.

This graph shows several things. 

1. In the preseason, Pomeroy had UK ranked very high, #1 for the time spanning games 4 through 7, and then UCLA hit.  My data shows the slide starting in game 4 and continuing to game 8, the time period that Pomeroy had the Cats in that #1 spot.   However, the Pomeroy ranking in those portions of a season are strongly influenced by his preseason values and less so by the current season performance, so there was no decline in ranking even though the performance level was already slipping.
2. The fall from grace occurs, and by game 18, Pomeroy had the Cats at #30.  My ranking at this point had them at #33.  Also, the Pomeroy numbers at this point are almost completely based on the current season averages, with little to no influence from his preseason ideas.
3. Then, UK's light came on, and the surge began.  Yes, the Tennessee loss appears as a little bump in the surge, but the surge really accelerates after that bump turned the Cats' light from a dim 60 watt level to a bright 150 watt level.

This team continues to surge.  Movement up the Pomeroy chart from 7 to 1 will be much more difficult than moving from #30 to #7, but this year that movement will be easier than most because the power levels of the top 5 teams this year are not head and shoulders above the pack like they would be in most seasons.

Go Big Blue!

Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2016 SEC TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!

What is the 2015-16 Kentucky Team Really About?
Impressive Wins Over Duke and Louisville Say Team Can Play
Losses To UCLA and Ohio State Say Team Has Problems

Nothing Epidomizes This Question Like Alex Poythress' Play
Great at Times-Like Against Louisville
Disappears at Times-Like Against Ohio State

The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
AND
RECRUITING PROSPECTS
FOR 2014 THROUGH 2016

The Current Top 64 Ratings
Based On Adjusted Net Game Efficiency
Based On Pomeroy Efficiencies Only
(2015-16 Rankings)

ANE TOP 25

SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2015-16 Current

How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?

Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.

See the Details at this LINK!!!!

Insert 2015-16 Schedule with predicted and actual results here when available

GAME BY GAME ADJUSTED NET GAME EFFICIENCY
2014-15 Final Results

Follow the 2015-16 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:

Follow the 2015-16 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,

OR

Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:

THE DATA:

Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season

Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season

UK 2015-16 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2016

PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS

HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2016
TABULATED BY COACH

ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2016

Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2016 for Each Sort Category
Noted Below:

1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
3. Home
4. Away
5. Neutral Court
6. Non-Conference
7. SEC
8. Pomeroy Top 50
9. Pomeroy Over 50
10. Post Season Play
11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2016
12. SEC Tournament Gateway
13. NCAA Tournament

Current Individual Efficiencies

Updated Following Each Game

Kentucky Efficiencies by Game

College Basketball-NCAA D1
2014-15 Season Upset Rate
Daily Data/Results

Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning

Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate

THE 2016 NCAA TOURNAMENT FIELD IS NOT SET
WHEN THE TOURNAMENT IS READY TO BEGIN
USE THIS LINK WILL ACTIVATE
TO TRACK THE RESULTS V NGE PREDICTIONS
Link Will Be Activated Later

The 2016 SEC Tournament Is Coming in early March
Wednesday March 9-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 10-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 11-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 12-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 13-Championship Game

Use This Link To Your Gateway To the Entire SEC Tournament
With Predictions and Actual Results Updated As They Occur
All Data Are Current With Projections To Year End Results
Based On Favorites Winning All Game To End of Regular Season

OVERVIEW OF 2015-16 OPPONENTS' PERFORMANCE LEVELS

A SUMMARY OF ALL 2015-16 UK OPPONENTS' STRENGTH
SORTED BY PREDICTED GAME MARGINS
[LOWEST TO HIGHEST]

RANKING OF ALL 2015-16 OPPONENTS BY PYTHAGOREAN - POMEROY

SEC RANKINGS
BASED ON ADJUSTED NGE

PROJECTED SEC SEASON
BASED ON ADJUSTED NGE FOR ALL SEC TEAMS

To Last Game's Box Score

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NEWS INDEX

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