BIG BLUE FANS FOR
Big Blue Madness, 2017 Is Coming In:
Coach Cal Meets With the 2017-18 Team for the first time on July 22, 2017
THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2017-18 BASKETBALL SEASON
NOTE: Remainder of This Gateway Will Be Updated Prior to the 2017-18 Season
The Data provided on this and other pages relevant to the current season will update
following each UK game and at other times as indicated by other activity in college basketball
How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore
Here is the ANE Pre-season Top 25
Based On a Weighted Average
of Season ANE Values Between
2013 and 2017
Ken Pomeroy's algorythm for projecting pre-season rankings yields the following top 10 for the 2017-18 season.
I have added Pomeroy's Pre-season rankings to the table above. Two (Kansas and Duke) of the ANE top 10
are not included in the Pomeroy Top 10. Pomeroy includes West Virginia (ANE#16) and Florida (ANE#12)
in his top 10 in place of Kansas and Duke. Very Interesting.
UK (Especially During the Calipari Era) Provides a Route To The NBA For Players
Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success
The 2018 SEC Tournament Is Coming in March
Wednesday March 7-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 8-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 9-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 10-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 11-Championship Game
YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2018 SEC TOURNAMENT
(The Information Provided Until March 4, 2018 Is Based On Projected Final Finish AND Current ANE Data for Teams.
This will be updated at least weekly until March 4, 2018)
YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2018 NCAA TOURNAMENT
(Will activate in early March When Field Is Announced)
The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
FOR 2018 THROUGH 2020
Scoring is the Product of Tempo and Efficiency
Here is How The Factors Have Varied
( Source: http://www.kenpom.com )
ADJUSTED DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Since 2002, the NCAA Tournament Champion has met three efficiency based criteria
and Must Remain "alive" in the tournament field :
1. A top 8 overall efficiency,
2. An offensive and a defensive efficiency each the top 20, and
3. An ANE > 0.3 points per possession
CRITERIA 1. and 2.
Five Top 8 Teams Appear in both the top 20 offensive and top 20 defensive ratings as of 3/25/17
AND are Still Alive as of 3/25/17
#1 Gonzaga, #4 North Carolina, and #6 Kentucky
Three of these 5 Teams Have an ANE > 0.3 ppp
The 2017 NCAA Tournament Saw Kentucky and UNC go to the final buzzer
to determine which would advance to the Final Four, and
Saw UNC face Gonzaga for the National Championship.
Who will rise to the top using this criteria in March 2018?
Here is the Top 20 as of 3/25/17
HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
Most Agree That Teams Enjoy An Advantage Against Their Opponent
When The Are Playing Games At Home,
Thus a Corresponding Disadvantage
When Playing Games At The Opponents' Home.
Most Also Want To Believe That No Such Advantage Exists
When Teams Compete At A Neutral Location.
Here Are the Data For UK Based On Games Played This Season To Date
Historically, Data Indicates a HCA of about 6 points.
The current ANE and Pomeroy HCA are shown below:
Ken Pomeroy Published an Article On Computing Home Court Advantage.
His analysis spanned the past 16 seasons, and examined conference
games to control the "quality of competition."
Pomeroy's data indicates an average HCA for all teams of about 3.75 points,
which is very similar to the 3 1/2 point average HCA I determined
based on SEC games. To Read Ken Pomeroy's article, CLICK HERE!
Pomeroy's Data Indicates a Shrinking HCA
As the HCA Has Dropped, So Have the Home Winning Percentage for Conference Games
During 2017-18, I will be extending my examination of HCA
based upon the information that Pomeroy
has recently shared with us.
Click here for information about that work.
How Have The Cats Performed Against
Stronger vs Weaker Opponents
Non-conference vs SEC Opponents
And Regular Season vs Post Season Opponents
The Current Top 100 Ratings
Based On ANE
With Relevant Details
CURRENT ANE RANKINGS
ALL 351 D1 TEAMS
End of Month ANE Rankings For All D1 Teams Through The 2016-17 Season
A Comparison of Kentucky Adjusted Efficiencies
With Average NCAA D1 Adjusted Efficiencies
2002 Through 2018
SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2016-18 Current Ranking
Top 4 Get Double Byes
Bottom 4 Get No Byes
Generally Top 40 Teams Get Into the NCAA
Teams Ranked 41-70 Are Hit and Miss For NCAA Invitations
Sometimes the truth does hurt
Read it and weep, all opponents
All 2016-17 Opponents With Pythagorean Rating
2016-17 All Opponent Game Projections
Sorted On Theoretical Game Margin
(Lowest to Highest)
2016-17 Schedule with predicted and actual result
With Pre-game Margins Provided by
Pomeroy, RPI Forecast, and Vegas Insider
GAME BY GAME ANE FOR
SHOWING GAME TO GAME, RUNNING AVERGE AND
RUNNING AVERAGE +/- 1 STD. DEV. UNIT
Current Individual Efficiencies
Kentucky Efficiencies by Game
College Basketball-NCAA D1
2016-17 Season Upset Rate
Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning
Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate
How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?
Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.
See the Details at this LINK!!!!
Follow the 2016-17 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:
Follow the 2017-18 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,
Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:
Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season
Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season
UK 2016-17 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2017
PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS
HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2017
TABULATED BY COACH
ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2017
Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2017 for Each Sort Category
- All Games, Including Exhibitions
- All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
- Neutral Court
- Pomeroy Top 50
- Pomeroy Over 50
- Post Season Play
- Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2018
- SEC Tournament Gateway
- NCAA Tournament
To Last Game's Box Score
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Why Do "Upsets" Occur?
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