BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

 

Big Blue Madness, 2017 Is Coming In:

 

 

The Big Blue Family Photo
2017 Big Blue Madness

Coach Cal Meets With the 2017-18 Team for the first time on July 22, 2017

THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2017-18 BASKETBALL SEASON
NOTE: Remainder of This Gateway Will Be Updated Prior to the 2017-18 Season


The Data provided on this and other pages relevant to the current season will update
following each UK game and at other times as indicated by other activity in college basketball

How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore

 

Here is the ANE Pre-season Top 25
Based On a Weighted Average
of Season ANE Values Between
2013 and 2017

Ken Pomeroy's algorythm for projecting pre-season rankings yields the following top 10 for the 2017-18 season.
I have added Pomeroy's Pre-season rankings to the table above. Two (Kansas and Duke) of the ANE top 10
are not included in the Pomeroy Top 10. Pomeroy includes West Virginia (ANE#16) and Florida (ANE#12)
in his top 10 in place of Kansas and Duke. Very Interesting.

  1. Villanova
  2. Arizona
  3. Kentucky
  4. Gonzaga
  5. Wichita State
  6. Virginia
  7. Florida
  8. Louisville
  9. North Carolina
  10. West Virginia

 

UK (Especially During the Calipari Era) Provides a Route To The NBA For Players

 

Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success

The 2018 SEC Tournament Is Coming in March
Wednesday March 7-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 8-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 9-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 10-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 11-Championship Game

 

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2018 SEC TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!

(The Information Provided Until March 4, 2018 Is Based On Projected Final Finish AND Current ANE Data for Teams.
This will be updated at least weekly until March 4, 2018)

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2018 NCAA TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!
(Will activate in early March When Field Is Announced)

 

 

 

The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
AND
RECRUITING PROSPECTS
FOR 2018 THROUGH 2020

 

Scoring is the Product of Tempo and Efficiency
Here is How The Factors Have Varied

( Source: http://www.kenpom.com )

 

ADJUSTED DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY

 

Since 2002, the NCAA Tournament Champion has met three efficiency based criteria
and Must Remain "alive" in the tournament field :

1. A top 8 overall efficiency,
2. An offensive and a defensive efficiency each the top 20, and
3. An ANE > 0.3 points per possession


CRITERIA 1. and 2.

Five Top 8 Teams Appear in both the top 20 offensive and top 20 defensive ratings as of 3/25/17
AND are Still Alive as of 3/25/17

#1 Gonzaga, #4 North Carolina, and #6 Kentucky


CRITERION 3.

Three of these 5 Teams Have an ANE > 0.3 ppp
#1 Gonzaga

 

The 2017 NCAA Tournament Saw Kentucky and UNC go to the final buzzer
to determine which would advance to the Final Four, and
Saw UNC face Gonzaga for the National Championship.

Who will rise to the top using this criteria in March 2018?

 

Here is the Top 20 as of 3/25/17

 

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE


Most Agree That Teams Enjoy An Advantage Against Their Opponent
When The Are Playing Games At Home,
Thus a Corresponding Disadvantage
When Playing Games At The Opponents' Home.
Most Also Want To Believe That No Such Advantage Exists
When Teams Compete At A Neutral Location.
Here Are the Data For UK Based On Games Played This Season To Date
Historically, Data Indicates a HCA of about 6 points.


The current ANE and Pomeroy HCA are shown below:

 

Ken Pomeroy Published an Article On Computing Home Court Advantage.
His analysis spanned the past 16 seasons, and examined conference
games to control the "quality of competition."
Pomeroy's data indicates an average HCA for all teams of about 3.75 points,
which is very similar to the 3 1/2 point average HCA I determined
based on SEC games. To Read Ken Pomeroy's article, CLICK HERE!

 

Pomeroy's Data Indicates a Shrinking HCA

 

As the HCA Has Dropped, So Have the Home Winning Percentage for Conference Games

 

During 2017-18, I will be extending my examination of HCA
based upon the information that Pomeroy
has recently shared with us.
Click here for information about that work.

 

How Have The Cats Performed Against
Stronger vs Weaker Opponents
Non-conference vs SEC Opponents
And Regular Season vs Post Season Opponents

 

The Current Top 100 Ratings
Based On ANE
With Relevant Details


 

CURRENT ANE RANKINGS
ALL 351 D1 TEAMS

End of Month ANE Rankings For All D1 Teams Through The 2016-17 Season

 

 

 

A Comparison of Kentucky Adjusted Efficiencies
With Average NCAA D1 Adjusted Efficiencies
2002 Through 2018

 

 

SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2016-18 Current Ranking
Top 4 Get Double Byes
Bottom 4 Get No Byes
Generally Top 40 Teams Get Into the NCAA
Teams Ranked 41-70 Are Hit and Miss For NCAA Invitations

 

Sometimes the truth does hurt
Read it and weep, all opponents

 

All 2016-17 Opponents With Pythagorean Rating
Pre-Season

 

2016-17 All Opponent Game Projections
Sorted On Theoretical Game Margin
(Lowest to Highest)


 

2016-17 Schedule with predicted and actual result
With Pre-game Margins Provided by
Pomeroy, RPI Forecast, and Vegas Insider

 

 

GAME BY GAME ANE FOR 2016-17
SHOWING GAME TO GAME, RUNNING AVERGE AND
RUNNING AVERAGE +/- 1 STD. DEV. UNIT

 

Current Individual Efficiencies

 

Kentucky Efficiencies by Game

 

College Basketball-NCAA D1
2016-17 Season Upset Rate
Daily Data/Results


Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning

 

Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate

 

 

 

 

How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?

Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.

See the Details at this LINK!!!!

 

Follow the 2016-17 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:

Follow the 2017-18 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,

OR

Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:

00 Tai Wynyard Starts The 2017-18 Season Full of Promise

01 ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
BASED ON POMEROY DATA

02 How Does Shooting at Home and Away From Home
Impact the Home Court Advantage-PART 2?

03 Cats Open 2017-18 Against A Real Opponent
In First Exhibition Game-Thomas More


THE DATA:

Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season

Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season

UK 2016-17 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2017

PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS

HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2017
TABULATED BY COACH

ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2017

Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2017 for Each Sort Category
Noted Below:

  1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
  2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
  3. Home
  4. Away
  5. Neutral Court
  6. Non-Conference
  7. SEC
  8. Pomeroy Top 50
  9. Pomeroy Over 50
  10. Post Season Play
  11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2018
  12. SEC Tournament Gateway
  13. NCAA Tournament


To Last Game's Box Score


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