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See Detailed Data For the Top Seeds
In the South Region In Kentucky's Path To The Final Four
After Selection Sunday At This Link

See Detailed Data For the Top Remaining Seeds
In the South Region In Kentucky's Path To The Final Four
After The First Two Rounds At This Link

Kentucky's Third NCAA Tournament Opponent
is Kansas State

Kansas State

Kentucky

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2014 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING

2017 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING
First Round

2013 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING
ROUND OF 32-PROJECTED BASED ON ANE

2013 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING
SWEET 16-PROJECTED BASED ON ANE

2013 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING
ELITE 8-PROJECTED BASED ON ANE

2013 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING
FINAL 4-PROJECTED BASED ON ANE

2013 NCAA TEAM DATA
AND NGE RANKING
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME--PROJECTED BASED ON ANE

2011 SUMMARY OF PREDICTED V ACTUAL GAME BY GAME RESULTS

SUMMARY OF UPSET FREQUENCIES AND TOURNAMENT UPSETS
SORTED BY PREDICTED MARGINS-2011

Upsets Occur when a team with the higher ANE loses, and Upsets are always a part of college basketball. Over the last many seasons, the average upset rate for full seasons have been in the 25 to 27% range. Upset rates in the NCAA tournament have been slightly higher, in the range of 26 to 32 percent. Here is the history of NCAA Tournament Upsets since the 2011 Tournament.

The above data is presented in the next series of tables providing more detail in two respects.  First, the tables examine more categories of statistics, and second, the data is sorted based on the following factors, in the order shown below:

1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
3. Home
4. Away
5. Neutral Court
6. Non-Conference
7. SEC
8. Pomeroy Top 50
9. Pomeroy Over 50
10. Post Season Play
11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2014
12. SEC Tournament Gateway
13. NCAA Tournament

You may link to any of these sorted data pages using the links above, or you can browse them in sequence using the "Continue" buttons at the bottom of each page.

To Data Tables for Games Against Team Ranked POMEROY Top 50

IMPORTANT NOTE: In 2009-10, the Kentucky basketball team's rebounding became so dominant in the first 10 games that the differences created by a varied definition of a possession became substantial, and based on a 10 game comparison of predicted and actual results using the original definition and the Pomeroy definition, I have decided to start using the Pomeroy definition for a possession beginning with the 2009-10 season, and thereafter. However, I have no means to convert the data for all prior seasons to this new definition at this time. Therefore, any attempts to compare pace and efficiency derived values for 2009-10 and later with any prior season's posted values will fail. The differences are:

1. Pace values will be lower, by the number of offensive rebounds.

2. Efficiencies will be higher due to the lower number of total possessions

3. Turnover rates will be higher due to the lower number of possessions.

CHECK OUT THESE OTHER ANALYTICAL WRITINGS

What Is Basketball?

What is a Possession?

Change in Position on Definition of Possessions

What Is Net Game Efficiency?

Why Do "Upsets" Occur?

Do Objective Performance Measures Like NGE
Account For Intangible?

 

Here is an example Possible ANE Based Seeding for 2017

 

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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