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BASKETBALL

 

THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2016-17 BASKETBALL SEASON
NOTE: Remainder of This Gateway Will Be Updated Prior to the 2016-17 Season


The Data provided on this and other pages relevant to the current season will update
following each UK game and at other times as indicated by other activity in college basketball

How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore

 

Listen To Coach Calipari on the Mike Lupica Show
Great Listen

 

 

UK (Especially During the Calipari Era) Provides a Route To The NBA For Players

 

Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success

The 2016 SEC Tournament Is Coming in early March
Wednesday March 8-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 9-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 10-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 11-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 12-Championship Game

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2017 SEC TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!

(The Information Provided Until March 5, 2017 Is Based On Projected Final Finish AND Current ANE Data for Teams.
This will be updated at least weekly until March 5, 2017)

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2017 NCAA TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!
(Will activate in early March When Field Is Announced)

 

On February 11, 2017, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Announced In-Season Seedings For the First Time.
As one might expect, there is poor correlation between the NCAA Seedings and ANE ratings, either by ANE or by Pomeroy
See Below:

Teams slighted: Wisconsin, Purdue, Wichita State, and SMU

Teams over-valued in seedings: Arizona, Butler, Oregon, Florida State, Kansas, Baylor, and North Carolina

Teams under-valued in seedings: Virginia, West Virginia, Florida, and Kentucky

Teams valued about right in seedings: Gonzaga, Villanova, Louisville, Duke, and UCLA

 

The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
AND
RECRUITING PROSPECTS
FOR 2017 THROUGH 2019

 

Scoring is the Product of Tempo and Efficiency
Here is How The Factors Have Varied

( Source: http://www.kenpom.com )

 

ADJUSTED DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY

Since 2002, the NCAA Tournament Champion has met three efficiency based criteria
and Must Remain "alive" in the tournament field :

1. A top 8 overall efficiency,
2. An offensive and a defensive efficiency each the top 20, and
3. An ANE > 0.3 points per possession


CRITERIA 1. and 2.

Five Top 8 Teams Appear in both the top 20 offensive and top 20 defensive ratings as of 3/25/17
AND are Still Alive as of 3/25/17

#1 Gonzaga, #4 North Carolina, and #6 Kentucky


CRITERION 3.

Three of these 5 Teams Have an ANE > 0.3 ppp
#1 Gonzaga

The 2017 NCAA Tournament Saw Kentucky and UNC go to the final buzzer
to determine which would advance to the Final Four, and
Saw UNC face Gonzaga for the National Championship.

Which teams will satisfy these criteria when March Madness 2018 Begins?

 

Here is the Top 20 as of 3/25/17

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE


Most Agree That Teams Enjoy An Advantage Against Their Opponent
When The Are Playing Games At Home,
Thus a Corresponding Disadvantage
When Playing Games At The Opponents' Home.
Most Also Want To Believe That No Such Advantage Exists
When Teams Compete At A Neutral Location.
Here Are the Data For UK Based On Games Played This Season To Date
Historically, Data Indicates a HCA of about 6 points.


The current ANE and Pomeroy HCA are shown below:

 

How Have The Cats Performed Against
Stronger vs Weaker Opponents
Non-conference vs SEC Opponents
And Regular Season vs Post Season Opponents

 

The Current Top 100 Ratings
Based On ANE
With Relevant Details


 

CURRENT ANE RANKINGS
ALL 351 D1 TEAMS

End of Month ANE Rankings For All D1 Teams Through The 2016-17 Season

 

A Comparison of Kentucky Adjusted Efficiencies
With Average NCAA D1 Adjusted Efficiencies
2002 Through 2017

 

 

SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2016-17 Current Ranking
Top 4 Get Double Byes
Bottom 4 Get No Byes
Generally Top 40 Teams Get Into the NCAA
Teams Ranked 41-70 Are Hit and Miss For NCAA Invitations

 

Sometimes the truth does hurt
Read it and weep, all opponents

 

All 2016-17 Opponents With Pythagorean Rating
Pre-Season

 

2016-17 All Opponent Game Projections
Sorted On Theoretical Game Margin
(Lowest to Highest)


 

2016-17 Schedule with predicted and actual result
With Pre-game Margins Provided by
Pomeroy, RPI Forecast, and Vegas Insider

 

 

GAME BY GAME ANE FOR 2016-17
SHOWING GAME TO GAME, RUNNING AVERGE AND
RUNNING AVERAGE +/- 1 STD. DEV. UNIT

 

Current Individual Efficiencies

 

Kentucky Efficiencies by Game

 

College Basketball-NCAA D1
2016-17 Season Upset Rate
Daily Data/Results


Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning

 

Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate

 

 

 

 

How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?

Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.

See the Details at this LINK!!!!

 

Follow the 2016-17 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:

Follow the 2016-17 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,

OR

Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:

00 Overview of Non-Conference Opponent Strength

01 Pre-Season Overview

01A UK Basketball Pace; 1972-2016

02 Exhibition 01-Clarion

03 Cat To Face Asbury In Last Exhibition Game
In Preparation For the Season

04 Let the Games Begin - First Up Will Be Stephen F. Austin

05 Cats Move To Canisius in Game 2

06 Cats Take on Michigan State at MSG

07 Cats Return To Rupp To Face Duquesne
And Fix Rebounding Issues

08 Cats Squeeze In Cleveland State Before Thanksgiving

09 Cats Return To Rupp One Day Removed From Thanksgiving

10 Cats Finish First Six Games In Historic Manner
Now They Must Strut Their Stuff Against Stronger Opponents

11 Cats Destroy Arizona State in the Bahamas
Return To Rupp for Stiffest Test Yet, UCLA

12 Cats Stumble and Fall To UCLA
Next Up at Rupp-Valparaiso

13 Cats Take On Hofstra In Brooklyn's Barclay Center

13A Yes Virginia, Three Point Shooting Is Important!!
But, It Is Not the Be-All, End-All Factor

14 This Is It; The Main Event; UK vs UNC

14A Efficiency Based Game Predictions Are Reliable and Right On Schedule

15 Cats Cards: 2015-16 Edition (With A Blow By Blow Recount of UNC Game Finish)

15A 2017 SEC Preview

16 Cats Open SEC Season At Mississippi

16A How Are Cats Doing As Compared To Average NCAA D1 Efficiency?

17 Cats Return To Rupp To Face Texas A&M

18 Cats Remain At Rupp To Entertain Arkansas

19 Cats Take 3-0 SEC Record To Vanderbilt

20 Cats Return To Rupp 4-0 In SEC To Face Auburn

20A EFFICIENCY BASED PROFILES OF NCAA TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONS 2002 THROUGH 2016 It Pays To Be Most Efficient!

21 Cats Take 5-0 Start On The Road To Mississippi State

22 Cats Face Off With South Carolina For Sole Possession Of SEC Top Spot

23 SEC Leading Cats Take On Tennessee In Knoxville

24 After Stumbling In Knoxville, Cats Meet Jayhawks

25 Cats Seek To Regain Stability After Losing To Kansas

26 Cats Need To Find Their Legs At Florida

27 Cats Limp Home From Florida Seeking Answers

28 Cats Fail To Heal Wounds At Rupp; Back On The Road To Alabama

29 Cats Give Best Effort In Over a Month Against Alabama
Return To Rupp For Second Chance At Tennessee

30 Cats Head To Georgia With Renewed Confidence

32 Cats Seek To Avenge Huge Loss and Win Another SEC Championship

33 Cats Host Vanderbilt For 2017 Senior Night

33A Are The Cats Surging, and Why?

34 Cats Conclude Regular Season At Texas A&M

34A Which Teams Should Be Favored To Win the 2017 NCAA Tournament?

35 Cats Open SEC Tournament Play Against Georgia

36 Cats Advance To Semi-finals To Face Alabama

37 Cats Face Arkansas For SEC Tournament Championship

38 Cats Open NCAA Play Against Northern Kentucky

39 Cats Advance To NCAA Second Round To Face Wichita State

40 Cats Seeks To Avenge December Rupp Arena Loss To UCLA in NCAA Sweet 16

40A REFLECTIONS ON THE SWEET 16 WIN OVER UCLA
AND A REVIEW OF THE DECEMBER UNC-UK GAME

41 Cats Face North Carolina for Trip To Final Four

THE DATA:

Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season

Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season

UK 2016-17 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2017

PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS

HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2017
TABULATED BY COACH

ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2017

Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2017 for Each Sort Category
Noted Below:

  1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
  2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
  3. Home
  4. Away
  5. Neutral Court
  6. Non-Conference
  7. SEC
  8. Pomeroy Top 50
  9. Pomeroy Over 50
  10. Post Season Play
  11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2016
  12. SEC Tournament Gateway
  13. NCAA Tournament


To Last Game's Box Score


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NEWS INDEX


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