BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

 

SPECIAL NOTICE TO THOSE VIEWING THIS PAGE
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CONTENT CURRENTLY SHOWS 2017-18 INFORMATION.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE 2018-19 SEASON, THE INFORMATION FROM THE PRIOR SEASON
WILL BE REPLACED WITH CURRENT INFORMATION AS THAT INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.

 

The 2018-19 Cats Gets To A Four Game Test Drive Their
In the Bahamas. Here are the individual efficiencies,
updated after each of the four games.

 

Over the Last 17 Seasons, The NCAA Champion
Has Been The Most Efficient or
nearly the most efficient team on the season 14 times

9 of the 17 Champions have ended the season with the #1
Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) (52.9%)

5 of the 17 Champions have ended the season with the #2, #3, or #4
ANE (19.8%)

The 3 outliers were:
#8 Syracuse in 2003,
#10 UConn in 2011, and
#15 UConn in 2014.

 

These 17 Championship Teams
Have Demonstrated
A Consistent Profile
of Player Individual Efficiencies

 

They have 8 players who both play
in a sufficient number of games and
log a sufficient number of minutes
to contribute to the team's success.

They have on average 1 player
with an individual efficiency
greater than 0.4 points per possession

They have on average 4 players
with an individual efficiency
between 0.2 and 0.3 points per possession

They have on average 8 players
with an individual efficiency
between 0.0 and 0.2 points per possession

They have NO CONTRIBUTING PLAYERS
with a negative individual efficiency!!!

HERE ARE THE DATA

CLICK IMAGE FOR FULL SIZE VIEW

 

 

The Journey To #9 Begins With Big Blue Madness

 

 

 

The Cats' Next Opponent Is Missouri at Rupp on Saturday night at 8:15 PM
Here are the Missouri Game to Game ANE Graph and a comparison with the Cats'

NOTE: Mississippi started the season in a declining trend for 10 games and then reversed course into a rising trend for the next 10 games. Since game 21, Mississippi has been in decline again until stabilizing for the last 4 games at about its current efficiency. This is an 8 point match up on a neutral court.

 

See Similar Data for All SEC Teams in 2017-18 at this LINK

 

The Big Blue Family Photo
2017 Big Blue Madness

Coach Cal Meets With the 2017-18 Team for the first time on July 22, 2017

THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2017-18 BASKETBALL SEASON
NOTE: Remainder of This Gateway Will Be Updated Prior to the 2017-18 Season


The Data provided on this and other pages relevant to the current season will update
following each UK game and at other times as indicated by other activity in college basketball

 

How Have UK Teams Performed Over the Years?

How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore

 

Ken Pomeroy's algorythm for projecting pre-season rankings yields the following top 10 for the 2017-18 season.
I have added Pomeroy's Pre-season rankings to the table above. Two (Kansas and Duke) of the ANE top 10
are not included in the Pomeroy Top 10. Pomeroy includes West Virginia (ANE#16) and Florida (ANE#12)
in his top 10 in place of Kansas and Duke. Very Interesting.

  1. Villanova
  2. Arizona
  3. Kentucky
  4. Gonzaga
  5. Wichita State
  6. Virginia
  7. Florida
  8. Louisville
  9. North Carolina
  10. West Virginia

 

UK (Especially During the Calipari Era) Provides a Route To The NBA For Players

 

Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success

The 2018 SEC Tournament Is Coming in March
Wednesday March 7-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 8-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 9-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 10-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 11-Championship Game

 

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2018 SEC TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!


(The Information Provided Until March 4, 2018 Is Based On Projected Final Finish AND Current ANE Data for Teams.
This will be updated at least weekly until March 4, 2018)

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2018 NCAA TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!
(Will activate in early March When Field Is Announced)

 

 

 

The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
AND
RECRUITING PROSPECTS
FOR 2018 THROUGH 2020

 

Scoring is the Product of Tempo and Efficiency
Here is How The Factors Have Varied

( Source: http://www.kenpom.com )

 

TOP 20 ADJUSTED OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY

 

 

Since 2002, the NCAA Tournament Champion has met three efficiency based criteria
and Must Remain "alive" in the tournament field :

1. A top 8 overall efficiency,
2. An offensive and a defensive efficiency each the top 20, and
3. An ANE > 0.3 points per possession


CRITERIA 1. and 2.

Three Top 8 Teams Appear in both the top 20 offensive and top 20 defensive ratings


#3 Duke, #4 Purdue, #5 Michigan State, and #10 West Virginia


CRITERION 3.

#3 Duke and #4 Purdue have an ANE > 0.3 ppp

Who will rise to the top using this criteria in March 2018?

 

Here is the Top 20

 

Many People Say
"This Year There Are No Dominant Teams and the NCAA Is Wide Open"
Is that the case in 2018?
Is it really ever the case?

 

The Current Top 100 Ratings
Based On ANE
With Relevant Details


 

CURRENT ANE RANKINGS
ALL 351 D1 TEAMS

End of Month ANE Rankings For All D1 Teams Through The 2016-17 Season

 

 

 

SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2016-18 Current Ranking
Top 4 Get Double Byes
Bottom 4 Get No Byes
Generally Top 40 Teams Get Into the NCAA
Teams Ranked 41-70 Are Hit and Miss For NCAA Invitations

 

Sometimes the truth does hurt
Read it and weep, all opponents

 

All 2016-17 Opponents With Pythagorean Rating
Pre-Season

 

2016-17 All Opponent Game Projections
Sorted On Theoretical Game Margin
(Lowest to Highest)


 

2016-17 Schedule with predicted and actual result
With Pre-game Margins Provided by
Pomeroy, RPI Forecast, and Vegas Insider

 

 

 

Current Individual Efficiencies

 

INDIVIDUAL EFFICIENCY FOR ALL UK PLAYERS SINCE 1996

 

Kentucky Efficiencies by Game

 

College Basketball-NCAA D1
2016-17 Season Upset Rate
Daily Data/Results


Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning

 

Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate

 

 

 

 

How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?

Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.

See the Details at this LINK!!!!

 

Follow the 2016-17 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:

Follow the 2017-18 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,

OR

Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:

00 Tai Wynyard Starts The 2017-18 Season Full of Promise

01 ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
BASED ON POMEROY DATA

02 How Does Shooting at Home and Away From Home
Impact the Home Court Advantage-PART 2?

03 Cats Open 2017-18 Against A Real Opponent
In First Exhibition Game-Thomas More

04 Cats Continue Its Exhibition Season against Morehead

05 Cats Close Out Exhibition Play Against Centre College

06 Let the Games Begin First Up Will Be Utah Valley University

07 Cats Stumble To Win Against Utah Valley
Have Little Time To Fix Issues Before Vermont

08 Cats Off To Slowest Start of Calipari Era
Kansas Poses Huge Threat To Expose The Cats

09 Cats Show Signs of Improvement and Hold Their Own Against Kansas

10 Cats' Noted Improvement Against Kansas Illusory and Disappears Against ETSU
Cats Now Face Tough Realities Against Troy

11 Cats' Finish the First Five Games in Lackluster Fashion
May Indicate Rough Road Ahead

11A WHAT CAN WE READ IN THE TEA LEAVES AFTER THE FIRST FIVE GAMES?

12 Cats Face University of Illinois-Chicago at Rupp

13 Was Cats' Strong Win Over UIC A “Flash In The Pan”
Or A Glimpse Of Better Times Ahead

14 Cats Leave Friendly Lexington For Second Time this Season
Face Monmouth In Madison Square Garden

14A Are the Cats Being Respected As They Deserve?

15 Cats' Schedule Shifts Gears As Virginia Tech Comes To Rupp

16 Cats Face UCLA In CBS Sports Classic In New Orleans

17 Cats-Cards 2017

18 Cats Open 2017-18 SEC Season Against Georgia At Rupp

19 Cats Face First Road Game At LSU

20 Cats Travel To Tennessee

21 After Tennessee, Texas A&M Also Brings
"Double, Double, Toil and Trouble"

22 Cats Return To Road To Face Vanderbilt

22A Re-Reading Tea Leaves: A Mid Season Update

23 Cats Remain On Road For Fourth Game of First Six At South Carolina

24 Cats Limp Back To Rupp For Battle with SEC Co-Leader

25 Cats Take On Mississippi State To End Losing Streak

26 Cats Take On #10 West Virginia In Morgantown at Double Digit Underdog

27 Triumphant Cats Return To Rupp For Rematch With Vanderbilt

28 Cats Move Into Last Half Of SEC Schedule At Missouri

29 Cats Limp Back From Missouri Seeking Payback Against Tennessee

30 Cats Return To The Road For Rematch With Aggies

31 Cats Limp From Texas A&M to Auburn Carrying a 3-Game Losing Streak

32 Wounded Cats Return To Rupp Desperate To Win

33 Cats Get Badly Need Win Against Alabama and Return To the Road at Arkansas

34 Cats Return To Rupp For Rematch With Missouri

35 Cats Will Face Mississippi For Final Home Game
To Lock Up SEC Tournament #4 Seed

36 Cats Close Regular Season At Florida
With SEC Tournament Double Bye and #3 Seed Going To the Winner

37 Cats Open Post Season Against Georgia In The SEC Tournamenet Quarterfinals

38 Survive And Advance: That is what Kentucky and Alabama Did Today
They will face each other tomorrow in the SEC Tournament Semifinals

39 Cats Advance To SEC Tournament Championship Game To Face Tennessee

40 Kentucky Starts The Pursuit of #9 As #5 Seed Against #12 Seed Davidson

41 Kentucky Advances To Second Round To Face #13 Seed Buffalo

42 Kentucky Enters South Region Favored To Win
First Up Is Kansas State In Sweet 16

42A HOW RELIABLE WERE THOSE BLASTED TEA LEAVES
IN NOVEMBER AFTER THE FIRST FIVE GAMES?

THE DATA:

Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season

Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season

UK 2016-17 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2017

PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS

HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2017
TABULATED BY COACH

ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2017

Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2017 for Each Sort Category
Noted Below:

  1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
  2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
  3. Home
  4. Away
  5. Neutral Court
  6. Non-Conference
  7. SEC
  8. Pomeroy Top 50
  9. Pomeroy Over 50
  10. Post Season Play
  11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2018
  12. SEC Tournament Gateway
  13. NCAA Tournament


To Last Game's Box Score


RETURN TO THE
NEWS INDEX


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